Our COVID modeling approach is based on the software package
Covasim, developed in partnership with the
Institute for Disease Modeling, which is open source and available on
GitHub.
The model uses demographic data, setting-specific contact data, and global COVID-19 disease parameter estimates.
It is also linked with an interface developed by Microsoft, that can account for macroeconomic impact of different
policy decisions on industries. The model is easily adaptable to different settings and has been applied to countries
and cities in North and South America, Africa, Asia, and the Pacific.
COVID-19 applications
Lessons learned from Vietnam’s COVID-19 response: the role of adaptive behavior change and testing in epidemic control
Pham Q.D., Stuart, R.M., Nguyen, T.V., Luong Q.C., Tran D.Q., Pham T.Q., Phan L.T., Dang T.Q.,
Tran D.N., Do H.T., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Abeysuriya R., Oron A.P., Kerr C.C. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
COVID-19 mathematical modelling of resurgence risk: estimating risks associated with early reopening in Victoria
Abeysuriya R., Delport D., Hellard M.E., Scott N. (2020)
Burnet Institute [PDF]
Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting
Scott N., Palmer A., Delport D., Abeysuriya R., Stuart R.M., Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Klein D.,
Sacks-Davis R., Heath K., Hainsworth S., Pedrana A., Stoove M., Wilson D.P., Hellard M.E. (2020)
Medical Journal of Australia
Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace
interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study
Panovska-Griffiths J., Kerr C.C., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Viner R.M., Bonell C. (2020)
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health [PDF]
Robust test and trace strategies can prevent COVID-19 resurgences: a case study from New South Wales, Australia
Stuart R.M., Abeysuriya R.G., Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Klein D.J., Gray R., Hellard M.E., Scott N. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine
Kerr C.C., Mistry D., Stuart R.M., Rosenfeld R., Hart G., Núñez R.C., Selvaraj P., Cohen J.A.,
Abeysuriya R.G., George L., Hagedorn B., Jastrzębski M., Fagalde M., Duchin J., Famulare M., Klein D.J. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
Schools are not islands: Balancing COVID-19 risk and educational benefits using structural and temporal countermeasures
Cohen J.A., Mistry D., Kerr C.C., Klein D.J. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
The potential contribution of face coverings to the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in
schools and broader society in the UK: a modelling study
Panovska-Griffiths J., Kerr C.C., Waites W., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Foster D., Klein D.J., Viner R., Bonnell C. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
Impact of COVID-19 on HIV
The Risks and Benefits of Providing HIV Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic
Stover J., Kelly S.L., Mudimu E., Green D., Smith T., Taramusi I., Bansi-Matharu L., Martin-Hughes R., Phillips AN., Bershteyn A.; HIV Modelling Consortium (2021)
Pre-print [PDF]
Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models
Jewell B.L., Mudimu E., Stover J., ten Brink D., Phillips A.N., Smith J.A., Martin-Hughes R., Teng Y.,
Glaubius R., Mahiane S.G., Bansi-Matharu L., Taramusi I., Chagoma N., Morrison M., Doherty M., Marsh K., Bershteyn A.,
Hallett T.B., Kelly S.L.; HIV Modelling Consortium (2020)
Lancet HIV [PDF]
Impact of COVID-19 on TB
Covasim model methods
Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions
Kerr C.C., Stuart R.M., Mistry D., Abeysuriya R.G., Hart G., Rosenfeld K., Selvaraj P., Nunez R.C.,
Hagedorn B., George L., Izzo A., Palmer A., Delport F., Bennette C., Wagner B., Chang S., Cohen J.A., Panovska-Griffiths J.,
Jastrzebski M., Oron A.P., Wenger E., Famulare M., Klein D.J. (2020)
Pre-print [PDF]
© Optima Consortium for Decision Science, 2023